🎄ClimateHaven.com

by Climate Central

Published December 15, 2025

Will you be having a white Christmas this season?
NOAA’s interactive map provides a guide to the historical probability of a white Christmas near you based on the last 30 years of weather data. Check your local forecast within a week of Christmas for the actual weather conditions up on your rooftop this year. 

• The Twelve Days of Christmas (December 25 to January 5) have been warming for 97% of locations evaluated since 1969.

• With a warmer climate, it is likely that more winter precipitation will fall as rain rather than snow in many parts of the country.

• Still dreaming of a white Christmas? NOAA’s new interactive map shows the historical probability of a white Christmas in your area based on 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals.

• Climate change threatens symbols of the holiday season, from Christmas tree growth, winter recreation, and cozy drinks to Arctic wildlife.

The Twelve Days of Christmas (December 25 to January 5) have been warming since 1969. Using temperature data at 246 locations across the country, our analysis shows:

• 97% of stations have seen an increase in average temperature for this 12-day period since 1969.

• Warming has exceeded 1°F for 94% of locations, 3°F for 75% of locations, and 5°F for 37% of locations. 

• Temperatures have climbed from coast to coast. The locations that have warmed the most are: Reno, Nev. (9.5°F); Burlington, Vt. (9.1°F), Milwaukee, Wisc. (8.6°F), Helena, Mont. (8.5°F), and Waterloo, Iowa (8.4°F).

If you’re dreaming of a white Christmas… ​​your chances are best in Idaho, Minnesota, Maine, Upstate New York, and the Allegheny, Rocky, or Sierra Nevada Mountains.

• The historical probability of a white Christmas (at least 1 inch of snow accumulation on December 25) is slimmer for the rest of the contiguous U.S. based on NOAA’s analysis of the most recent climate normals (1991-2020).

• Winter has been the fastest-warming season for most of the U.S. since 1970, increasing the likelihood of winter precipitation falling as rain rather than snow.

• Warmer winters are disrupting the water cycle in the western U.S., which relies on mountain snowpack for much of its freshwater supply. Decades of shrinking snowpack has reduced snow-derived freshwater in the west by 15-30% since 1955.

Rockin’ around the… plastic tree? A warming winter season puts holiday traditions at stake. 

• Christmas trees feeling the heat: Wildfires and a record-breaking heatwave in June 2021 scorched Christmas tree farms in the Pacific Northwest. This potentially impacts tree supplies and prices this year and into the future as heat-stunted seedlings mature. 

• Winter recreation meltdown: Activities like skiing, skating, ice fishing, and snowman-building are threatened by a rising number of above-freezing days. 

• Festive food and drink: Maple syrup, cocoa for hot chocolate, applesfor pie and cider, and brandy for eggnog are all climate-sensitive. Warmer, shorter winters can disrupt growth and production timelines, or shift them poleward altogether. 

• Life in the North Pole: Waning sea ice coverage, changing temperature and precipitation trends, and shifting vegetation are transforming Arctic ecosystems including icons of the holiday season such as polar bears and reindeer.